BRITISH POLICE HAVE HAD ENOUGH! 🇬🇧 Met Police chief Sir Mark Rowley has raised the alarm over rising tag breaches, repeat offending and early-released prisoners returning to trouble. Now, the government faces growing pressure over public safety and prison policy. Are the police right to sound the alarm? Watch closely and tell us what you think in the comments!

MET POLICE CHIEF WARNS OF “REVOLVING DOOR” AS EARLY RELEASE SCHEME ROLLS OUT

Sir Mark Rowley has told LBC that London is seeing more than 100 electronic tag breaches a day, that officers are arresting two or three early-release offenders a week, and that the vast majority of those arrested for breaches are simply bailed back into the community on the same conditions. The comments come as the latest phase of the government’s early release programme gets under way.

Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley has described the justice system as turning into a “revolving door” for offenders released early from prison. Speaking on LBC, he said his force is dealing with over 100 tag breaches a day in London — a figure that is rising — and is arresting two or three people a week who were freed under the early-release arrangements and have either reoffended or been recalled.

In the large majority of cases where officers arrest someone for breaching their tag conditions, he said, the courts bail them back into the community on the same restrictions, providing “zero sanction.”

Rowley also reported that the number of arrest warrants issued for people who fail to appear in court has roughly doubled since the start of the year, from around 800 a month to close to 1,600, which he linked to more volatile individuals being returned to the community.

How the scheme works

Under changes brought in by the Sentencing Act, most adult prisoners serving standard determinate sentences are now eligible for release after serving one-third of their term rather than the previous halfway point (or the 40% point introduced earlier to ease overcrowding). The first major tranche of roughly 700 prisoners, all serving sentences of under 19 months, left prison on 1 October 2026.

Further groups are scheduled in the coming months, with the total expected to reach around 4,500 by the middle of next year. Certain categories — including rape, serious child sex offences and manslaughter — were excluded after public and police pressure earlier in the year.

The government argues the measure is essential to prevent the prison system from running out of space. Prisons in England and Wales have been operating at very high occupancy, and ministers say new capacity is being built. They insist those released are subject to the “toughest ever controls,” primarily electronic tagging and licence conditions enforced by the Probation Service.

Police and practical concerns

Senior officers have voiced frustration. A Detective Chief Superintendent in north-west London wrote to local representatives describing the impact of one prolific offender released in the first wave who reoffended within days, requiring significant officer time to locate and re-arrest.

Greater Manchester police have also reported rearrests of recently released individuals. The Police Federation and at least one chief constable had earlier raised the possibility of legal challenge over the inclusion of certain categories of offender; the government subsequently narrowed the scheme.

Independent scrutiny of the tagging system has highlighted practical weaknesses. Reports from the National Audit Office and His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Probation have pointed to delays in fitting tags, gaps in monitoring, and pressure on an under-staffed Probation Service. Justice ministers have not always been able to provide immediate figures on how many of the newly released prisoners are successfully tagged.

The wider picture

One high-profile case cited in recent coverage involved Robert Sabat, who was released under the earlier 40% arrangement in October 2025 after a short sentence and murdered his former partner, Dickiesha Nurse, days later. He was sentenced to life imprisonment with a minimum term of 17 years in early October 2026.

While that case predates the current one-third rule, it has been used to illustrate the risks when capacity pressures lead to earlier releases.

The debate now turns on whether the combination of tagging, licence conditions and probation supervision can manage the risk, or whether the volume of releases and the enforcement gaps identified by police will produce further serious incidents. Rowley’s public comments mark a rare intervention by the country’s most senior operational police officer into the practical consequences of sentencing and release policy. Both the government and opposition parties face the same underlying constraint: years of rising prison numbers without matching capacity, leaving successive administrations to choose between overcrowding and earlier release.